UPDATES
(28 April 2013): Updated to add 16/17 April 2013 outlooks. Also added verification for all days.In light of all the discussion surrounding today’s Day 3 Moderate Risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center, one question that is on a lot of people’s mind is, “What do Day 3 Moderate Risks Become?” Well, here’s the answer…
- Every Day 3 Moderate Risk has remained a Day 2 Moderate Risk or greater.
- Every Day 3 Moderate Risk remained at Moderate or High Risk level for at least one Day 1 outlook.
- 4 of 11 Day 3 Moderate Risks were Day 1 High Risk at some point during Day 1.
Note: this post is a follow up to the original SPC Day 3 Moderates in Context from 2011.
Day 3 Moderate Risk Outlooks (01 January 2005 – Present)
* 08 June 2005 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports
* 31 December 2005 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports
22 April 2007 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 High -> Storm Reports
04 June 2007 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports
05 June 2007 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 High -> Storm Reports
* 16 October 2007 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports
08 April 2008 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports
11 May 2009 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports
08 April 2011 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports
25 April 2011 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 High -> Storm Reports
12 April 2012 -> Day 2 High -> Day 1 High -> Storm Reports
15 April 2013 -> Day 2: Moderate -> Day 1: Moderate -> Storm Reports
* Day 3 Moderate Risk that does not meet the current criteria for a Day 3 Moderate Risk