SPC Day 3 Moderates in Context: What Do They Become?

UPDATES

(28 April 2013): Updated to add 16/17 April 2013 outlooks. Also added verification for all days.
~~(15 April 2013): Updated to account for today’s Day 3 Moderate Risk~~

In light of all the discussion surrounding today’s Day 3 Moderate Risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center, one question that is on a lot of people’s mind is, “What do Day 3 Moderate Risks Become?” Well, here’s the answer…

• Every Day 3 Moderate Risk has remained a Day 2 Moderate Risk or greater.
• Every Day 3 Moderate Risk remained at Moderate or High Risk level for at least one Day 1 outlook.
• 4 of 11 Day 3 Moderate Risks were Day 1 High Risk at some point during Day 1.

Note: this post is a follow up to the original SPC Day 3 Moderates in Context from 2011.

Day 3 Moderate Risk Outlooks (01 January 2005 – Present)

* 08 June 2005 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports

* 31 December 2005 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports

22 April 2007 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 High -> Storm Reports

04 June 2007 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports

05 June 2007 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 High -> Storm Reports

* 16 October 2007 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports

08 April 2008 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports

11 May 2009 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports

08 April 2011 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 Moderate -> Storm Reports

25 April 2011 -> Day 2 Moderate -> Day 1 High -> Storm Reports

12 April 2012 -> Day 2 High -> Day 1 High -> Storm Reports

15 April 2013 -> Day 2: Moderate -> Day 1: Moderate -> Storm Reports

* Day 3 Moderate Risk that does not meet the current criteria for a Day 3 Moderate Risk