Climatological Estimates and Evolution of Local Daily Severe Weather Probabilities: Part 1

This post is from November 2012. It is part of the archive of my original blog, so its data, links, and conclusions may be out of date.

I’ve cleaned up and finally uploaded the animations of estimates climatological probabilities of severe weather. The probabilities are estimated from the 30 year period of 1982-2011. Probability animations exist for tornadoes, hail, wind, and any severe. For more information check out the original post! The raw images should become available on the Storm Prediction Center’s website in the coming weeks.

Because the image quality is a bit degraded in the animations, the color scales for each animation are listed below.

Any Severe: 0.25%, 1.00%, 2.00%, 3.00%, 4.00%, 5.00%, 6.00%, 7.00%, 8.00+%

Tornado: 0.10%, 0.20%, 0.40%, 0.60%, 0.80%, 1.00%, 1.20%, 1.40+%

Wind: 0.25%, 1.00%, 2.00%, 3.00%, 4.00%, 5.00%, 6.00%, 7.00+%

Hail: 0.25%, 1.00%, 2.00%, 3.00%, 4.00%, 5.00%, 6.00%, 7.00+%